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Arie Scherson · @ariesnotebook

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Will The Creative Actually Convert

From x.com/ariesnotebook

I use early ad results as a signal about creative, while recognizing that a first-day result is not proof of sustained performance. On March 2, 2025, replying to @NotZainAgain, I argued that a $9 CPA on $100 in spend on day one of a new creative set in the US only still says something about the creative, even if it is not “statistically significant.” I did not provide later results showing whether that CPA persisted. This is an early observation about creative, not a verified long-term outcome, and it relates to examples I have collected in winning ad creative.

In my March 2, 2025 reply, I described my Meta ad creative test’s day-one result as $9 CPA on $100 in spend on day one of a new creative set in US only.

On March 2, 2025, replying to @NotZainAgain, I said I had seen something similar before, but “not like this,” and that I was pretty certain it would be a big unlock. I did not specify what “this” referred to or what kind of unlock I expected, so this records my confidence rather than a defined opportunity or result.

On November 13, 2025, I said the key to creative that converts is foundational research. @reborn_amit—not me—said that, from limited experience, the resulting ads looked clean but did not convert as well, and said they needed to try more. My point was that foundational research matters; I gave no specific research method or conversion results. This connects to my customer-research notes in mining social media for customer research.

On November 15, 2025, I asked @shauneng what was the biggest scale they had seen with the fewest creatives. I did not provide an answer or a scale figure, so this remains an open question rather than evidence about how many creatives are needed to scale.

On November 15, 2025, I reported $33.9k last 30 days and shared https://t.co/fjCSKazttc. I did not specify what the amount measures, so it is not evidence of ad conversion or revenue.

In the same post, @SahmirCreatives—not me—said the editing felt targeted toward teens and that they would like to see how it converts. The linked content and its conversion performance are not identified in the captured post.

On December 31, 2025, I described a story ad as “Schrodinger's story ad”: whether it converts remains unresolved until I open the ad account and observe it. I did not report an observed result.

Related: one winning ad changes everything, finding and borrowing winning ideas, winning ad creative