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Arie Scherson · @ariesnotebook

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Election Season And Prediction Markets

From x.com/ariesnotebook

I shared a laughing reaction to a meme I described as relevant to election prediction markets on November 5, 2024, at 15:44 UTC. The post linked to https://t.co/DX10EpuasH, but the capture does not reveal what the meme depicts or which markets it concerns.

On November 6, 2024, I predicted that in 2 weeks everyone would have moved on from the elections and be getting ready for Thanksgiving. This was a forecast, not a report of what later happened.

On November 13, 2024, I wrote, “In the face of adversity, we build 🦅.” The post quoted @shayne_coplan, who said Polymarket was deeply committed to being non-partisan and claimed it had provided value to “10's of millions of people” during the election cycle. He also criticized what he described as an administration effort against companies associated with political opponents, and argued that a more pro-business, pro-startup approach might have changed incumbents’ electoral fate. These are Coplan’s claims, not my own; the captured quote cuts off after “while causing...”. This post connects my expression of resolve with the policy context in trump administration policy moves and my patriotic calls to build in american resurgence and patriotism.

On April 30, 2026, I praised an unspecified item as a strong campaign ad, writing, “This went very hard. Great campaign ad.” I quoted @spencerpratt, whose post said “They not like us” and included a link. The capture does not identify the ad’s subject or creator.

Related: prediction markets, american resurgence and patriotism, memecoin pumps and dumps