I believe market conditions influence investment and business returns more than people would like to admit. When I think about outcomes, I consider both the quality of a team and whether its market is facing headwinds or tailwinds.
Hard work alone would be a satisfying explanation for outsized returns, but I do not think it is enough to explain every outcome. Even highly competent teams can achieve average results when their market is prone to headwinds.
The reverse can also happen: an average team may achieve outsized returns in a market prone to tailwinds. I see market conditions as an important influence on results, not as a guarantee of success.
I keep market conditions in mind when considering business growth, while treating them as a consideration rather than an excuse for having an average team. I made this observation on August 14, 2025, without naming a particular market or quantifying the effect.
Related: pick the right market, marketing and distribution matter, surrounding yourself with ambitious people