On 2022-06-15, I reported that the Fed increased the federal funds rate by 75 bips to 1.6 percent; set to reach 4 percent by the end of the year. I described the federal funds rate as the rate at which banks and credit unions lend overnight without collateral to other institutions.
In a post I quoted from @nikhilkamathcio on 2022-06-15, he said US borrowing and mortgage rates were 3.45 percent for the 10y rate; US home mortgage rates at 6 percent; the post said this should lower housing demand. I made no separate substantive statement in that reply.
On 2022-06-15, I argued that higher rates discourage Capex and borrowing; inflation averaged 7 % for the first half of the year and would need to fall to 3 % abruptly to reach the short-term 5 % target. I did not specify what the 1.6 % referred to or which short-term target I meant; this reasoning connects to negative real rates and recession and when cheap money ends.
On 2022-06-15, I asked, “Why will a fed rate of 1.6 % with inflation at 8 % contain inflation ?” I did not provide an answer; the question challenges whether the rate could contain inflation.