On 2023-02-08, I said inflation and Federal Reserve rates had spiked just before recessions over a 70-year period. I did not identify the period’s dates, the data series, or the recessions.
I suggested that falling inflation together with the first downward change in rates could confirm a recession. I did not specify which rate, define the signal more precisely, or provide supporting figures or an analysis method.
I introduced this as “Two,” but the preceding point in the larger sequence is not included in the captured thread. The reply is marked 3/3; the quoted preceding post is marked 2/3. This recession signal concerns a different question from the capital-cost outlook in when cheap money ends.
On 2023-02-24, I compared interest rates with inflation across countries and made a separate observation about Brazil. The post did not identify the countries or time period, give a data source or method, or explain the basis for the Brazil claim; it linked to https://t.co/vyIlaRNp7y.
I said interest rates were higher than inflation in only 8 of the 30 countries.
I said that in Brazil inflation was likely higher than the 5 per cent reported number.
On 2023-02-24, I said countries with negative real interest rates would likely see further rate hikes to curtail incumbent inflation. In a reply, I also argued conditionally that if the real value of bank deposits declined over time, that could lead to bubbles across real estate, public equity, and private equity. I said smart money would try to hedge by borrowing or holding assets instead of bank deposits or cash. The quoted comparison of rates and inflation was attributed to @nikhilkamathcio, not to me; my posts named no countries with negative real rates and gave no hike amounts or timing. This connects to when cheap money ends.