In early October 2026 I posted a series of X notes on India’s foreign‑exchange reserves, RBI swap positions and current‑account balances, summarising the latest RBI data and my own analysis.
RBI’s forex reserves are at $765 bn but they have a $200 bn short position (through swaps). So effective reserves are about $565 bn.
The $200 bn net short dollar position hit in August 2026 is the highest in RBI’s history.
Under‑1‑year swap shorts rose by $7.5 bn in August, while the 1‑year‑plus leg totals $85 bn, mostly in 3‑year swaps.
Current‑account deficit was $25 bn last year; a worst‑case estimate for 2026 is $50 bn, which the $565 bn effective reserves can cover for more than ten years.
The 2022 peak of reserves was $697 bn; the recent increase also includes about 12 lakh crore (≈ $150 bn) added at M0 levels via the FCNR window.
I track “effective reserves” as gross reserves less future short positions because the gross figure masks large contingent liabilities. The stress horizon is linked to the maturity of the 3‑year swaps (2029‑31), not to today’s spot interventions.