I considered Airbnb’s cultural visibility and reported growth alongside its falling stock price as a possible investment opportunity, while the posts leave the basis and outcome of the idea only partly specified.
On August 7, 2025, I noted that Airbnb had reportedly done $3.1 billion last quarter, a 13% year-over-year increase. I also pointed to Ryan Trahan’s 50 day Airbnb series, which I said raised $11 million for St. Judes, received hundreds of millions of views, and put brand sentiment “through the roof.” With Airbnb’s stock price plunging, I wrote, “Feels like we're entering a good time to buy Airbnb stock.” The post did not identify the quarter, quantify the stock decline or view count, or explain how brand sentiment was measured.
In a separate August 7, 2025 reply to @ariesnotebook, I asked @ChrisCamillo what he thought of the situation as a “social arb play.” The Airbnb revenue, Ryan Trahan series, fundraising, views, sentiment, falling-stock description, and buy suggestion were @ariesnotebook’s quoted claims; my reply asked for Chris’s perspective and did not state my own investment view.
On August 15, 2025, I wrote, “I bet on it and I was right,” while quoting the same Airbnb claims and buy suggestion from @ariesnotebook. The post does not make clear what I had bet on, so I cannot conclude that I bought Airbnb stock or that the stock thesis was what proved right.
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