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Tomasz Tunguz · @tomasztunguz

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Oct 2026 X Market Observations

From x.com/ttunguz

On 15 Oct 2026 I posted on X that 80% of software & AI stocks are down today. The same day I also noted that five frontier AI models are within five intelligence points of each other, yet their cost per unit differs by 3.8×.

80% of software & AI stocks are down today.

Five frontier models now sit within five points of each other in terms of intelligence, but their cost per unit differs by 3.8x.

I clarified in a reply that the appropriate metric is cost per task, not per token, to correct a misunderstanding in a prior discussion with @thomasjankowski.

  • Open questions:
    1. What benchmark defines the "five points of intelligence"?
    2. Which five frontier models are compared?
    3. How is "cost per unit" calculated?
    4. What drives the 3.8× cost disparity?
    5. Market implications of the 80% stock decline?