In early October 2026 I posted a thread on X analysing the emerging inference market and drawing parallels to the historical database market.
I estimate the inference market size at $350 B, based on a bottoms‑up calculation.
The market is growing at 200 % year‑over‑year.
I see inference as a stack—chips, memory, interconnect, power, orchestration, apps—each layer capable of hosting multiple large players.
- video (compute‑bound)
Just as databases split into relational, document, graph, time‑series and vector categories, inference will fragment into these slices, each with its own IPO‑scale potential.
I will measure market size by dollars spent rather than raw usage metrics.
While inference lock‑in is weaker than database lock‑in—more like a CDN than a tightly coupled engine—I still consider it a strategic factor.
These observations shape my decision to treat inference as a distinct market category and to focus on owning a single slice rather than the whole stack.
For further context see my LinkedIn market observations where I discussed the database‑to‑inference transition.
- long‑context (KV‑cache memory‑bound)
- edge (power‑bound)
- voice
- local