On 2022-01-27, I said I am not the biggest fan of technical analysis and shared budget-related data. I wrote, “Expect volatility post-event,” noting that in only 8 out of the last 22 years the markets moved lesser than 4 percent plus/minus in the post-budget month. The post does not identify the market measure or underlying data; it links to https://t.co/vDKNq4pKCR. This historical perspective connects to managing risk across market cycles and market corrections in historical perspective.
In a 2022-01-27 reply, I shared two historical observations: markets moved under 1 percent on budget day in only 5 out of 22 years, and in 14 out of 22 years(63 percent) the pre-exisiting trend has reversed post budget( pre-budget month vs post budget month). I did not identify the market or explain the calculation behind these comparisons.
In the same budget discussion on 2022-01-27, I said that historically the pre-budget month has a positive bias whereas the post-budget month has a negative bias. I did not specify the market, years, or how I measured that bias; this observation complements my other historical comparisons on managing risk across market cycles.