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Arie Scherson · @ariesnotebook

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Silver As An Asymmetric Trade

From x.com/ariesnotebook

I described silver as a potentially asymmetric trade, not as a purchase I had made or a fully specified plan. On August 15, 2025, I pointed to a multi-year supply deficit, industrial demand from EVs, solar, and AI hardware, and silver’s distance below its all-time high as reasons to consider it. I did not provide sources for those claims or explain how I would manage risk.

On August 15, 2025, I said silver was ~25% below its all-time high and suggested that if it breaks $50, it could run like Gold and Bitcoin.

In a separate post that day, I added, “Good momentum too.” The accompanying silver thesis was @ariesnotebook’s, not mine: I was commenting on their post rather than independently stating its supply, demand, or price claims.

On September 23, 2025, I posted that silver was still ~20% away from its all-time high, called it an “Easy play,” and joked, “Call me Silver Surfer.”

On December 15, 2025, I said silver broke $50 and shared a link. This was my claim in that post; I did not specify the instrument, price source, or whether the level was sustained. The earlier possible-breakout scenario was a conditional opinion, not a documented trade plan.

On December 15, 2025, I said silver broke $50.

Related: metals topping rotating into energy, precious metals mania, stock trading wins and hype