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Arie Scherson · @ariesnotebook

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Inaction Is The Biggest Risk

From x.com/ariesnotebook

I find hard things easier when I take action without overthinking them: overthinking can make a hard task feel impossible, while acting can make it feel easy. This is why I try to move rather than get stuck thinking about the difficulty, a principle connected to seek risk and act bravely.

I had started my plans for 2025 over 30 days before I shared that update on December 29, 2024. I did not specify what the plans involved or what prompted me to start early.

As I looked ahead to 2025, I reminded myself that taking no risks is a risk in itself. I want to remember that avoiding a choice does not remove risk; this connects with small bets with asymmetric upside.

On May 25, 2026, I wrote, “Taking no risks is a risk.” I see avoiding risk as a risk in itself, alongside small bets with asymmetric upside.

On June 13, 2026, I called @dearantlers_’s advice to think about the worst-case scenario and do something about it “a fire quote.” It resonated with my emphasis on taking action rather than getting stuck, as in seek risk and act bravely.

I think of luck as preparation meeting opportunity, and I ask myself whether I am preparing for opportunity or doing nothing and hoping to get lucky. This connects preparation with taking action when opportunity arrives, alongside volatility creates market opportunity.

On 2025-01-10, I wrote, “Taking no risks is a risk,” and encouraged ending the week strong. The post included a pirate flag emoji and credited the artwork to @miboso: https://t.co/tKiEcS2kU7.

On 2025-03-22, I encouraged changing my circumstances if I did not like where I was in life: “If you don’t like where you are in life, move. You are not a tree.” I did not provide further context about the linked page: https://t.co/zhx9K0RgUN.

On 2025-04-14, I wrote that people overestimate the risk of doing something and underestimate the risk of not doing something. I did not attribute the claim or give evidence or a specific situation for it.

On 2025-04-19, I urged action over wishing: “Stop wishing, start doing.” The post did not say what prompted the reminder.

On 2025-04-24, when asked, “How do I get started?”, I said I get this question a lot, was not sure why people ask it, and had never asked it myself: “I just got started lmao.” I did not specify what I was starting.

On 2025-04-24, I argued that analysis paralysis—not lack of access to information—is killing many dreams. I gave no examples or evidence for the claim.

On 2025-04-28, I wrote that manifestation will not work without taking action consistently. I contrasted thinking about accomplishing things, which is easier, with doing things every day that lead to the outcome I want. I did not specify the outcomes or actions.

On 2025-04-29, I said I had met many people who trusted they would be super successful but did not act to make it happen. I see optimism as good, but expecting big accomplishments without doing anything as foolish: optimism alone does not produce results; action is necessary.

On 2025-05-20, I shared the unattributed reminder, “The magic you’re looking for is in the work you’re avoiding.” I did not say what work or outcome I had in mind; it echoes my belief that progress comes from acting rather than staying stuck, as in seek risk and act bravely.

On 2025-05-26, I wrote, “I wish more people knew that taking no risks is the biggest risk of all.” This extends my view that avoiding action does not eliminate risk, and connects with small bets with asymmetric upside.

On 2025-06-17, I wrote, “There’s a sea of opportunity out there. The biggest risk today is not going for it.” I did not specify which opportunities I meant; the reminder connects acting on opportunity with volatility creates market opportunity.

On 2025-08-31, I shared the advice, “Overthinking won’t get you anywhere. Keep it simple and keep moving.” I did not identify a specific situation; the reminder pairs simplicity with taking action.

On 2025-09-03, I wrote that most things I fear, feel insecure about, or think are holding me back are not real, but come from overthinking. I did not specify what “most” or “not real” means in particular cases.

On 2025-09-23, I repeated my view that avoiding risk is itself a risk: “I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again: taking no risks is a risk.” I did not say which risks or situation I had in mind.

On 2025-10-26, I advised setting overthinking aside and acting when I already know what works: “Sometimes you literally have to turn off your brain and take action on what you know works, without overthinking.” I did not name a particular action or give examples or results.

On 2025-11-03, I wrote that the best way to reduce stress is to move and take action. I did not specify what actions I meant or how their effects were assessed.

On December 23, 2025, I reminded myself not to get paralyzed by endless analysis or fear of making the wrong decision. I see avoiding inaction as part of taking risks rather than letting uncertainty stop me; this connects with seek risk and act bravely.

On January 14, 2026, I wrote that the biggest risk is just not taking any risks. I did not specify which risks or situation I meant; the reminder echoes my view that playing it safe can itself be risky, alongside small bets with asymmetric upside.

On April 1, 2026, I encouraged finding within myself the power to stop overthinking. I also reminded myself that even while I am struggling, something will come out of it; I did not specify what that outcome would be. This fits my emphasis on continuing forward in keep moving forward.

On May 4, 2026, I wrote that sitting and stressing about problems gets nowhere, while relentless action toward solutions does. I warned against the “energy trap” of reflecting too much on problems instead of taking action to solve them. I described the principle as simple but easy to neglect, without giving examples or defining what relentless action entails.

Related: calm in the face of chaos, learn by doing, seek risk and act bravely