- Typical fund timeline before a meaningful cheque: 10–12 years. ^e7
- Returns usually materialize over 7–12 years, with DPI often zero for years. ^e8
- Portfolio failure rate: 9 out of 10 companies fail. ^e9
- A single success must achieve $10 B+ to move the fund needle. ^e10
- Median fund TVPI hovers around ~1‑2x. ^e11
- Top‑tier funds deliver 5‑10x TVPI. ^e12
I believe that selling portfolio companies too early is a crime in our venture capital business, so I never aim for rapid exits within 1–2 years for AI investments.
Selling too early is a crime in our business – whenever an LP asks why we don’t exit sooner, that’s my answer.